Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.52
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.65
Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl preview and prediction
The match
Fakel host Shinnik Yaroslavl in the First League on Wednesday 22 April, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Fakel Stadium.
Form guide
Fakel's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Rodina Moskva 1–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.6 for Fakel and 0.4 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Fakel to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fakel 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel69%fair 1.44 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.70
Shinnik Yaroslavl10%fair 9.56 · @6.40
2.02Expected goals
1.62Fakel xG
0.40Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
43%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–017%
0–013%
3–09%
1–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.6 – 0.4 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win✗
69%
1.44
1.53 ▲
Double chance
Fakel or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.52
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.65
–
Form
Fakel – last 5
LWWLW
13 Apr
vs Rodina Moskva
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Ural
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 5
WDDWL
12 Apr
@ Volga Ulyanovsk
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Spartak Kostroma
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Enisey
1–1
D
9 Mar
vs FC UFA
1–0
W
2 Mar
@ Rodina Moskva
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
What is the prediction for Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Fakel to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers Fakel have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 10%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Fakel vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chayka1
Chernomorets0
FK Sokol Saratov0
Rodina Moskva0