Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Arsenal Tula to win @ 1.88 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArsenal Tula to win ✗60% · @1.88
Double chanceArsenal Tula or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.97
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk preview and prediction
The match
Chelyabinsk travel to Stadion Arsenal in the First League on Wednesday 22 April (17:00 WAT) to face Arsenal Tula. Arsenal Tula are 12th with 19 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Chelyabinsk sit 11th on 21 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Arsenal Tula's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Fakel 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Chelyabinsk's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Enisey 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Arsenal Tula arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Arsenal Tula and 0.7 for Chelyabinsk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal Tula 60%, draw 23%, Chelyabinsk 17%.
Safer route: Arsenal Tula or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.97.
Value angle: Arsenal Tula to win at 1.88 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Arsenal Tula or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Arsenal Tula 1–0 Chelyabinsk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal Tula60%fair 1.66 · @1.88
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.32
Chelyabinsk17%fair 6.00 · @4.10
2.44Expected goals
1.69Arsenal Tula xG
0.75Chelyabinsk xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 1.7 – 0.7 Chelyabinsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal Tula to win✗
60%
1.66
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Arsenal Tula or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.97
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.63
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal Tula / FT Arsenal Tula✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Form
Arsenal Tula – last 6
LWWLLL
5 Apr
vs Fakel
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ural
0–2
L
9 Mar
vs Volga Ulyanovsk
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Lokomotiv
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chelyabinsk – last 6
LDLLDD
17 Apr
@ Enisey
0–3
L
3 Apr
vs Chernomorets
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Chayka
1–2
L
23 Mar
vs Torpedo Moskva
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Volga Ulyanovsk
2–2
D
7 Mar
vs Spartak Kostroma
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal Tula and Chelyabinsk.
What is the prediction for Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
Our pick is Arsenal Tula or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chelyabinsk 17%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
Our predicted score is Arsenal Tula 1–0 Chelyabinsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk (First League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Arsenal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chayka1
Chernomorets0
FK Sokol Saratov0
Fakel2
Rodina Moskva0