Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarmiento de La Banda to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.80
Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa preview and prediction
The match
San Martin Formosa travel to Stadio Ciudad de La Banda in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 12 July (20:00 WAT) to face Sarmiento de La Banda. Sarmiento de La Banda are 13th with 25 points from 16 games (in the top half), while San Martin Formosa sit 4th on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Sarmiento de La Banda's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Defensores de Vilelas 0–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Martin Formosa's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Juventud Antoniana 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Sarmiento de La Banda arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Sarmiento de La Banda and 1.0 for San Martin Formosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sarmiento de La Banda 46%, draw 24%, San Martin Formosa 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 53% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Sarmiento de La Banda 1–1 San Martin Formosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarmiento de La Banda46%fair 2.19 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
San Martin Formosa31%fair 3.24 · @3.70
2.33Expected goals
1.31Sarmiento de La Banda xG
1.01San Martin Formosa xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sarmiento de La Banda 1.3 – 1.0 San Martin Formosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento de La Banda to win✓
46%
2.19
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento de La Banda / FT Sarmiento de La Banda✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.80
–
Form
Sarmiento de La Banda – last 6
LWWWWW
4 Jul
@ Defensores de Vilelas
0–3
L
28 Jun
vs Bartolomé Mitre
1–0
W
13 Jun
@ Juventud Antoniana
1–0
W
7 Jun
vs Sol de América
2–0
W
31 May
@ Sarmiento Resistencia
1–0
W
25 May
vs Boca Unidos
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martin Formosa – last 6
DLWLWW
5 Jul
vs Juventud Antoniana
0–0
D
28 Jun
@ Sol de América
1–2
L
21 Jun
vs Sarmiento Resistencia
3–0
W
14 Jun
@ Boca Unidos
1–3
L
7 Jun
vs Tucuman Central
3–2
W
25 May
@ Defensores de Vilelas
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento de La Banda and San Martin Formosa.
What is the prediction for Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
On our numbers Sarmiento de La Banda have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and San Martin Formosa 31%.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
Our predicted score is Sarmiento de La Banda 1–1 San Martin Formosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ciudad de La Banda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
