El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: El Linqueño to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEl Linqueño to win ✓59% · @1.80
Double chanceEl Linqueño or draw ✓84% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.29
El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy preview and prediction
The match
Independiente De Chivilcoy travel to Leonardo Costa in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 12 July (19:00 WAT) to face El Linqueño. El Linqueño are 26th with 19 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Independiente De Chivilcoy sit 25th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
El Linqueño's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Independiente De Chivilcoy's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Sportivo Belgrano 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for El Linqueño and 0.6 for Independiente De Chivilcoy. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: El Linqueño 59%, draw 25%, Independiente De Chivilcoy 16%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.50.
Value angle: El Linqueño to win at 1.80 – 59% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: El Linqueño 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
El Linqueño59%fair 1.69 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.00
Independiente De Chivilcoy16%fair 6.39 · @4.50
2.04Expected goals
1.46El Linqueño xG
0.59Independiente De Chivilcoy xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: El Linqueño 1.5 – 0.6 Independiente De Chivilcoy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
El Linqueño to win✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Double chance
El Linqueño or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT El Linqueño / FT El Linqueño✓
35%
2.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.29
–
Form
El Linqueño – last 6
LDLWLL
5 Jul
@ Gimnasia Chivilcoy
0–1
L
28 Jun
vs Sportivo Belgrano
1–1
D
23 Jun
@ 9 de Julio Rafaela
2–3
L
14 Jun
vs Douglas Haig
2–0
W
7 Jun
@ Atletico Escobar
0–1
L
31 May
vs Defensores de Belgrano VR
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Independiente De Chivilcoy – last 6
DLLDDD
5 Jul
@ Sportivo Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Jun
vs Douglas Haig
0–4
L
21 Jun
@ Defensores de Belgrano VR
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Gimnasia Concepción
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ Gimnasia Chivilcoy
0–0
D
31 May
vs 9 de Julio Rafaela
2–2
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Linqueño and Independiente De Chivilcoy.
What is the prediction for El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
On our numbers El Linqueño have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente De Chivilcoy 16%.
How many goals will there be in El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Our predicted score is El Linqueño 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
El Linqueño vs Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Leonardo Costa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
