Value bet: Alvarado to win @ 3.75 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVilla Mitre to win ✓44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.34
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Villa Mitre take on Alvarado on Sunday 28 June, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Fortin. Villa Mitre are 16th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Alvarado sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Villa Mitre's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Santamarina 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alvarado's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Circulo Deportivo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Villa Mitre and 0.7 for Alvarado. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Villa Mitre 44%, draw 25%, Alvarado 31%.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Alvarado to win at 3.75 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Villa Mitre 0–0 Alvarado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villa Mitre44%fair 2.25 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.70
Alvarado31%fair 3.26 · @3.75
1.58Expected goals
0.91Villa Mitre xG
0.67Alvarado xG
42%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–021%
1–019%
0–114%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Villa Mitre 0.9 – 0.7 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villa Mitre to win✓
44%
2.25
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.10
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
19%
5.34
–
Form
Villa Mitre – last 5
WDDWW
20 Jun
@ Santamarina
2–0
W
14 Jun
vs Germinal de Rawson
0–0
D
25 May
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–0
D
17 May
vs Sol de Mayo
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Circulo Deportivo
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Alvarado – last 6
WDWDWD
20 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
2–2
D
7 Jun
vs Sol de Mayo
2–0
W
31 May
@ Guillermo Brown
0–0
D
24 May
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Sol de Mayo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villa Mitre and Alvarado.
What is the prediction for Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
On our numbers Villa Mitre have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alvarado 31%.
How many goals will there be in Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Our predicted score is Villa Mitre 0–0 Alvarado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
