Double chanceGerminal de Rawson or draw ✓89% · fair 1.13
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓25% · fair 4.04
Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Germinal de Rawson take on Santamarina on Sunday 28 June, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Fortin. Germinal de Rawson are 30th with 18 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Santamarina sit 36th on 13 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Germinal de Rawson's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Villa Mitre 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santamarina's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Villa Mitre 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Germinal de Rawson and 0.3 for Santamarina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Germinal de Rawson 69%, draw 20%, Santamarina 11%.
Both teams to score: no (61%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Germinal de Rawson 1–0 Santamarina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Germinal de Rawson69%fair 1.45 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @3.70
Santamarina11%fair 8.85 · @13.00
1.76Expected goals
1.44Germinal de Rawson xG
0.32Santamarina xG
39%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–025%
2–018%
0–017%
3–09%
1–18%
2–16%
From our goals model: Germinal de Rawson 1.4 – 0.3 Santamarina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Germinal de Rawson to win✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Double chance
Germinal de Rawson or draw✓
89%
1.13
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Germinal de Rawson / FT Germinal de Rawson✓
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
25%
4.04
–
Form
Germinal de Rawson – last 6
DDLWDD
14 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
30 May
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–1
L
24 May
vs Sol de Mayo
1–0
W
17 May
vs Guillermo Brown
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Santamarina – last 6
LDWLLD
20 Jun
vs Villa Mitre
0–2
L
14 Jun
@ Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
1–0
W
31 May
@ Sol de Mayo
2–3
L
24 May
vs Guillermo Brown
0–2
L
17 May
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germinal de Rawson and Santamarina.
What is the prediction for Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina?
On our numbers Germinal de Rawson have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Santamarina 11%.
How many goals will there be in Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina?
Our predicted score is Germinal de Rawson 1–0 Santamarina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina?
Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
