Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Poland to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPoland to win61% · @1.95
Double chancePoland or draw82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.26
Romania vs Poland preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Romania take on Poland on Saturday 14 November, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT). Romania are 4th with 0 points from 4 games, while Poland sit 3rd on 4 points.
Form guide
Romania's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Sweden 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Poland's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Bosnia & Herzegovina 0–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 October 2026, finished Poland 6–0 Romania.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.0 for Romania and 2.3 for Poland. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Romania 18%, draw 21%, Poland 61%.
Safer route: Poland or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Poland to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our pick: Poland or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Romania 1–2 Poland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Romania18%fair 5.59 · @3.80
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.50
Poland61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
3.31Expected goals
1.00Romania xG
2.31Poland xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–210%
1–18%
0–18%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Romania 1.0 – 2.3 Poland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Romania
Poland
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-11%
+22%
Goals conceded vs average
+77%
-9%
Our expected goals here
0.98
2.67
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Poland or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Romania vs Poland?
On our numbers Romania have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Poland 61%.
How many goals will there be in Romania vs Poland?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Romania vs Poland?
Our predicted score is Romania 1–2 Poland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Romania vs Poland?
Romania vs Poland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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