Norway vs Wales prediction & analysis
Norway to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.25
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Norway 2.2 – 0.8 Wales expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Norway are clear favourites at home with a 72% chance of winning, against 12% for Wales.
Norway have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Wales have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.2 for Norway, 0.8 for Wales). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Norway have won 0, Wales have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Norway to win at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.39.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Norway to win | 72% | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Norway or draw | 88% | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 51% | 1.98 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 | 1.12 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.67 |
| Half-time result | Norway ahead at half-time | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Norway / FT Norway | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 | 13% | 7.94 | – |
Form
Norway – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Oct | @ Wales | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Sep | vs Denmark | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Jul | vs England | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Jul | @ Brazil | 2–1 | W |
Wales – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Denmark | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Oct | vs Norway | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Denmark | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Sep | @ Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Jun | @ Romania | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Jun | vs Ghana | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 1 Oct 2026 | Wales v Norway | 2–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | -2 | 3 |
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Bosnia & HerzegovinaFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Norway vs Wales?
Our pick is Norway to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Norway vs Wales?
On our numbers Norway have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Wales 12%.
How many goals will there be in Norway vs Wales?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Norway vs Wales?
Norway vs Wales (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.