Value bet: Northern Ireland to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNorthern Ireland to win48% · @2.30
Double chanceNorthern Ireland or draw75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.29
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Northern Ireland take on Ukraine on Saturday 14 November, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT). Northern Ireland are 1st with 8 points from 4 games, while Ukraine sit 3rd on 4 points.
Form guide
Northern Ireland's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Georgia 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ukraine's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Hungary 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 October 2026, finished Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.2 for Northern Ireland and 0.6 for Ukraine. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Safer route: Northern Ireland or draw (75%) at 1.33.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Northern Ireland to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our prediction: Northern Ireland or draw – a 75% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Northern Ireland48%fair 2.07 · @2.30
Draw27%fair 3.74 · @2.90
Ukraine25%fair 4.02 · @3.00
1.88Expected goals
1.24Northern Ireland xG
0.64Ukraine xG
49%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–110%
2–17%
From our goals model: Northern Ireland 1.2 – 0.6 Ukraine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Northern Ireland
Ukraine
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-0%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-42%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.39
0.59
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Our pick is Northern Ireland or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
On our numbers Northern Ireland have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ukraine 25%.
How many goals will there be in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Our predicted score is Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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