Portugal vs Denmark prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.57
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Portugal 2.2 – 1.0 Denmark expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Portugal are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for Denmark.
Portugal have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Denmark have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Portugal come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.2 for Portugal, 1.0 for Denmark). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Portugal have won 1, Denmark have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.63.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Portugal to win | 63% | 1.59 | 1.45 |
| Double chance | Portugal or draw | 85% | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 58% | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.53 |
| Half-time result | Portugal ahead at half-time | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Portugal / FT Portugal | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 | 10% | 10.15 | – |
Form
Portugal – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Norway | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | @ Denmark | 4–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Norway | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Wales | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Jul | vs Spain | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Jul | vs Croatia | 2–1 | W |
Denmark – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Wales | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Oct | vs Portugal | 2–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Wales | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | @ Norway | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Jun | @ Congo DR | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Mar | vs FYR Macedonia | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
| 1 Oct 2026 | Denmark v Portugal | 2–4 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | -2 | 3 |
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Bosnia & HerzegovinaFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portugal vs Denmark?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?
On our numbers Portugal have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Denmark 15%.
How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Denmark?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Portugal vs Denmark?
Portugal vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.