Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultItaly to win ✓63% · @1.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.93
Italy vs Türkiye preview and prediction
The match
Türkiye travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 5 October (19:45 WAT) to face Italy. Italy are 2nd with 7 points from 4 games, while Türkiye sit 4th on 0 points.
Form guide
Italy's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with France 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Türkiye's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Belgium 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Italy arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 September 2026, finished Türkiye 1–4 Italy.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Italy and 1.0 for Türkiye. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Italy 63%, draw 18%, Türkiye 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Italy to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Italy 2–0 Türkiye. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Italy63%fair 1.59 · @1.40
Draw18%fair 5.70 · @4.60
Türkiye20%fair 5.09 · @6.50
3.00Expected goals
2.01Italy xG
0.99Türkiye xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Italy 2.0 – 1.0 Türkiye expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Italy to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?
On our numbers Italy have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Türkiye 20%.
How many goals will there be in Italy vs Türkiye?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Italy vs Türkiye?
Our predicted score is Italy 2–0 Türkiye, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Italy vs Türkiye?
Italy vs Türkiye (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cyprus2
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