Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction & analysis
Northern Ireland or draw
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: Northern Ireland to win @ 2.30 – our chance 54% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Northern Ireland 0.7 – 0.3 Georgia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Northern Ireland hold the edge on home soil with a 54% chance of winning, against 22% for Georgia.
Northern Ireland have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Georgia have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 1.0 goals (0.7 for Northern Ireland, 0.3 for Georgia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (37%), 1–0 (27%), 2–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Northern Ireland have won 1, Georgia have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Northern Ireland or draw at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Northern Ireland to win at 2.30 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Northern Ireland to win ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 2.30 ▲ |
| Double chance | Northern Ireland or draw ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 98% | 1.02 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✓ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 27% | 3.68 | – |
Form
Northern Ireland – last 6
| 2 Oct | @ Ukraine | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | vs Hungary | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | @ Georgia | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Jun | @ France | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Jun | vs Guinea | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Wales | 1–1 | D |
Georgia – last 6
| 2 Oct | @ Hungary | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Sep | vs Ukraine | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Northern Ireland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Jun | vs Bahrain | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Jun | vs Romania | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | @ Lithuania | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 25 Sep 2026 | Georgia v Northern Ireland | 0–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | -2 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
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Armenia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Our pick is Northern Ireland or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
On our numbers Northern Ireland have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Georgia 22%.
How many goals will there be in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
When is Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Northern Ireland vs Georgia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Windsor Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.