Serie B · Brazil · Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Juventude vs Botafogo SP prediction & analysis

78%

Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.18 – our chance 51% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultJuventude to win64% · @1.50

Double chanceJuventude or draw87% · @1.07

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.18

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.86

Win chances

Juventude64%fair 1.57 · @1.50

Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.75

Botafogo SP13%fair 7.82 · @6.55

2.29Expected goals

1.69Juventude xG

0.60Botafogo SP xG

51%Both score

42%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–017%

2–014%

1–110%

0–010%

2–19%

3–08%

From our goals model: Juventude 1.7 – 0.6 Botafogo SP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Juventude are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 13% for Botafogo SP.

Juventude have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Botafogo SP have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. Botafogo SP come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.3 goals (1.7 for Juventude, 0.6 for Botafogo SP). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Juventude have won 0, Botafogo SP have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.18 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Juventude to win	64%	1.57	1.50
Double chance	Juventude or draw	87%	1.15	1.07
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	51%	1.96	2.18 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.48	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	58%	1.73	1.66
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	78%	1.28	1.20
Half-time result	Level at half-time	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Juventude / FT Juventude	40%	2.52	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	17%	5.86	–

Form

Juventude – last 6

WDWDDW

7 Nov	@ Cuiaba	2–1	W
31 Oct	@ Vila Nova	2–2	D
27 Oct	vs Nautico Recife	4–0	W
17 Oct	@ Ceara	2–2	D
11 Oct	vs São Bernardo	2–2	D
7 Oct	@ Ponte Preta	2–0	W

2.3Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Botafogo SP – last 6

WDWWWW

5 Nov	vs Londrina	4–0	W
31 Oct	vs Sport Recife	1–1	D
24 Oct	@ Avai	2–0	W
18 Oct	@ CRB	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Ceara	1–0	W
7 Oct	@ Operario-PR	2–1	W

1.8Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Jul 2026

Botafogo SP v Juventude

4–2

Serie B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	+34	70
2	Juventude	37	19	11	7	+23	68
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	+15	66
4	Criciuma	37	18	8	11	+7	62
5	Fortaleza EC	37	16	14	7	+11	62
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	+6	58
7	Goias	37	17	7	13	-2	58
8	Atletico Goianiense	37	15	13	9	+10	58
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	+8	55
10	Operario-PR	37	15	9	13	-1	54
11	São Bernardo	37	14	10	13	+10	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	+6	51
13	Cuiaba	37	11	14	12	+2	47
14	Athletic Club	37	11	14	12	0	47
15	Nautico Recife	37	12	10	15	-9	46
16	Ceara	37	11	10	16	-9	43
17	Avai	37	11	7	19	-12	40
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	-13	32
19	America Mineiro	37	8	5	24	-28	29
20	Ponte Preta	37	3	6	28	-58	15

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