Serie B · Brazil · Arena IndependênciaAmerica Mineiro vs Avai prediction & analysis
Avai or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.25
Value bet: Avai to win @ 1.91 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: America Mineiro 0.7 – 1.8 Avai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Avai travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 13% for America Mineiro.
America Mineiro have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Avai have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (0.7 for America Mineiro, 1.8 for Avai). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 0–2 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, America Mineiro have won 0, Avai have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Avai or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Avai to win at 1.91 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Avai to win | 64% | 1.57 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Avai or draw | 87% | 1.15 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 54% | 1.85 | 1.74 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.24 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| Half-time result | Avai ahead at half-time | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Avai / FT Avai | 40% | 2.48 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 15% | 6.45 | – |
Form
America Mineiro – last 6
| 8 Nov | @ Ceara | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Nov | @ Londrina | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Oct | vs Cuiaba | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Operario-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | @ Criciuma | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Fortaleza EC | 0–1 | L |
Avai – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs São Bernardo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Nautico Recife | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Botafogo SP | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Cuiaba | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Londrina | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 21 Jul 2026 | Avai v America Mineiro | 2–1 |
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hub →Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs Avai?
Our pick is Avai or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win America Mineiro vs Avai?
On our numbers America Mineiro have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Avai 64%.
How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs Avai?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is America Mineiro vs Avai?
America Mineiro vs Avai (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Independência.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.