Serie B · Brazil · Estadio Primeiro de Maio

São Bernardo vs Athletic Club prediction & analysis

81%

Footrivo pick

São Bernardo or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.23

9/10Rating

1.23Odds

Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 1.93 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultSão Bernardo to win58% · @1.93

Double chanceSão Bernardo or draw81% · @1.23

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.84

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.15

Win chances

São Bernardo58%fair 1.73 · @1.93

Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.34

Athletic Club19%fair 5.18 · @3.72

2.46Expected goals

1.65São Bernardo xG

0.82Athletic Club xG

51%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%

2–012%

1–111%

2–19%

0–09%

0–17%

From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.6 – 0.8 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

São Bernardo hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 19% for Athletic Club.

São Bernardo have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Athletic Club have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.6 for São Bernardo, 0.8 for Athletic Club). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).

In their last 1 meeting, São Bernardo have won 0, Athletic Club have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is São Bernardo or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, São Bernardo to win at 1.93 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	São Bernardo to win	58%	1.73	1.93 ▲
Double chance	São Bernardo or draw	81%	1.24	1.23
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	51%	1.97	1.84
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.43	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.83	1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	75%	1.33	1.22
Half-time result	Level at half-time	43%	2.31	–
Half-time / full-time	HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo	35%	2.86	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	14%	7.15	–

Form

São Bernardo – last 6

LWWLDL

7 Nov	@ Avai	1–2	L
1 Nov	@ Cuiaba	2–1	W
24 Oct	vs Vila Nova	3–2	W
18 Oct	vs Criciuma	0–1	L
11 Oct	@ Juventude	2–2	D
6 Oct	@ Sport Recife	1–2	L

1.5Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Athletic Club – last 6

LWLDDL

8 Nov	vs Atletico Goianiense	2–3	L
2 Nov	vs Ceara	2–1	W
23 Oct	@ Operario-PR	0–1	L
18 Oct	@ Avai	0–0	D
13 Oct	vs Londrina	2–2	D
7 Oct	@ Goias	1–2	L

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 Jul 2026

Athletic Club v São Bernardo

2–1

Serie B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	+34	70
2	Juventude	37	19	11	7	+23	68
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	+15	66
4	Criciuma	37	18	8	11	+7	62
5	Fortaleza EC	37	16	14	7	+11	62
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	+6	58
7	Goias	37	17	7	13	-2	58
8	Atletico Goianiense	37	15	13	9	+10	58
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	+8	55
10	Operario-PR	37	15	9	13	-1	54
11	São Bernardo	37	14	10	13	+10	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	+6	51
13	Cuiaba	37	11	14	12	+2	47
14	Athletic Club	37	11	14	12	0	47
15	Nautico Recife	37	12	10	15	-9	46
16	Ceara	37	11	10	16	-9	43
17	Avai	37	11	7	19	-12	40
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	-13	32
19	America Mineiro	37	8	5	24	-28	29
20	Ponte Preta	37	3	6	28	-58	15

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