Serie B · Brazil · Estadio Adelmar da Costa CarvalhoSport Recife vs Goias prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.35
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.2 – 1.4 Goias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Goias shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 34% for Sport Recife.
Sport Recife have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. Goias have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. Goias come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.2 for Sport Recife, 1.4 for Goias). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Sport Recife have won 0, Goias have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.42.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Goias to win | 46% | 2.18 | 2.27 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 80% | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 61% | 1.65 | 1.59 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Goias / FT Goias | 25% | 3.98 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 11% | 9.40 | – |
Form
Sport Recife – last 6
| 6 Nov | @ Operario-PR | 2–3 | L |
| 31 Oct | @ Botafogo SP | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs Criciuma | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Fortaleza EC | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Atletico Goianiense | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs São Bernardo | 2–1 | W |
Goias – last 6
| 8 Nov | vs Ponte Preta | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Nov | vs CRB | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Oct | @ Ceara | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs Nautico Recife | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Operario-PR | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Jul 2026 | Goias v Sport Recife | 1–1 |
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hub →Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Goias?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Goias?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Goias 46%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Goias?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Sport Recife vs Goias?
Sport Recife vs Goias (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.