Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKashima to win ✓59% · @1.68
Double chanceKashima or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.62
Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees Kashima take on Mito Hollyhock on Wednesday 6 May, kicking off at 08:00 (WAT) at Kashima Soccer Stadium. Kashima are 1st with 45 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Mito Hollyhock sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Kashima's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Tokyo Verdy 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mito Hollyhock's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to FC Tokyo 2–5 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Kashima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Kashima and 0.9 for Mito Hollyhock. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Kashima 1–1 Mito Hollyhock. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kashima59%fair 1.70 · @1.68
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.60
Mito Hollyhock20%fair 4.97 · @5.00
2.75Expected goals
1.81Kashima xG
0.94Mito Hollyhock xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–06%
3–06%
From our goals model: Kashima 1.8 – 0.9 Mito Hollyhock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kashima to win✓
59%
1.70
1.68
Double chance
Kashima or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Half-time result
Kashima ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kashima / FT Kashima✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.62
–
Form
Kashima – last 6
LWWWWW
29 Apr
@ Tokyo Verdy
1–2
L
24 Apr
@ Kashiwa Reysol
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Urawa
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Kawasaki Frontale
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs JEF United Chiba
2–1
W
18 Mar
@ Machida Zelvia
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mito Hollyhock – last 6
LWLWLD
24 Apr
@ FC Tokyo
2–5
L
19 Apr
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Kashiwa Reysol
0–3
L
18 Mar
vs Yokohama F. Marinos
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Urawa
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Machida Zelvia
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kashima and Mito Hollyhock.
What is the prediction for Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock?
On our numbers Kashima have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mito Hollyhock 20%.
How many goals will there be in Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our predicted score is Kashima 1–1 Mito Hollyhock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock?
Kashima vs Mito Hollyhock (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Kashima Soccer Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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