Value bet: Cerezo Osaka to win @ 2.65 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✗45% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.41
Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka preview and prediction
The match
Cerezo Osaka travel to IAI Stadium Nihondaira in the J1 League on Wednesday 6 May (05:03 WAT) to face Shimizu S-pulse. Shimizu S-pulse are 7th with 24 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Cerezo Osaka sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Shimizu S-pulse's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Kyoto Sanga 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cerezo Osaka's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.4 for Cerezo Osaka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Cerezo Osaka to win at 2.65 – 45% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shimizu S-pulse34%fair 2.93 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.50
Cerezo Osaka45%fair 2.22 · @2.65
2.58Expected goals
1.18Shimizu S-pulse xG
1.41Cerezo Osaka xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: Shimizu S-pulse 1.2 – 1.4 Cerezo Osaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerezo Osaka to win✗
45%
2.22
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerezo Osaka / FT Cerezo Osaka✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.41
–
Form
Shimizu S-pulse – last 6
WLLWLW
2 May
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–2
L
25 Apr
vs Nagoya Grampus
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ V-varen Nagasaki
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka – last 6
LWWLLW
25 Apr
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–2
L
18 Apr
vs Kyoto Sanga
3–0
W
11 Apr
@ Gamba Osaka
1–0
W
4 Apr
@ Nagoya Grampus
0–3
L
18 Mar
vs Fagiano Okayama
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shimizu S-pulse and Cerezo Osaka.
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
On our numbers Shimizu S-pulse have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Cerezo Osaka 45%.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our predicted score is Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Cerezo Osaka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 05:03 (West Africa Time) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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