Value bet: Fagiano Okayama to win @ 2.65 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFagiano Okayama to win ✗40% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama preview and prediction
The match
V-varen Nagasaki host Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League on Wednesday 6 May, with kick-off at 05:03 (WAT) at Peace Stadium. V-varen Nagasaki are 9th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Fagiano Okayama sit 6th on 26 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Nagoya Grampus 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Fagiano Okayama's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Fagiano Okayama arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Fagiano Okayama 0–1 V-varen Nagasaki.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.4 for Fagiano Okayama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Fagiano Okayama to win at 2.65 – 40% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Fagiano Okayama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
V-varen Nagasaki35%fair 2.83 · @2.65
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Fagiano Okayama40%fair 2.48 · @2.65
2.63Expected goals
1.26V-varen Nagasaki xG
1.37Fagiano Okayama xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.3 – 1.4 Fagiano Okayama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?
On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fagiano Okayama 40%.
How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?
Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Fagiano Okayama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?
V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 05:03 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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