Value bet: V-varen Nagasaki to win @ 2.65 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultV-varen Nagasaki to win ✗40% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.73
V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga preview and prediction
The match
Kyoto Sanga travel to Peace Stadium in the J1 League on Wednesday 18 March (11:00 WAT) to face V-varen Nagasaki. V-varen Nagasaki are 9th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Kyoto Sanga sit 8th on 23 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kyoto Sanga's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Cerezo Osaka 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.3 for Kyoto Sanga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: V-varen Nagasaki to win at 2.65 – 40% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Kyoto Sanga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
V-varen Nagasaki40%fair 2.49 · @2.65
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.35
Kyoto Sanga36%fair 2.77 · @2.50
2.69Expected goals
1.39V-varen Nagasaki xG
1.30Kyoto Sanga xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.4 – 1.3 Kyoto Sanga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
V-varen Nagasaki to win✗
40%
2.49
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT V-varen Nagasaki / FT V-varen Nagasaki✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.73
–
Form
V-varen Nagasaki – last 5
WLWWL
15 Mar
vs Avispa Fukuoka
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ Gamba Osaka
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Cerezo Osaka
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Nagoya Grampus
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Kyoto Sanga – last 5
LLWWD
14 Mar
vs Cerezo Osaka
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Fagiano Okayama
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Shimizu S-pulse
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between V-varen Nagasaki and Kyoto Sanga.
What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?
On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kyoto Sanga 36%.
How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?
Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Kyoto Sanga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?
V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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