Value bet: Shimizu S-pulse to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultShimizu S-pulse to win ✗44% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse preview and prediction
The match
Avispa Fukuoka host Shimizu S-pulse in the J1 League on Wednesday 18 March, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Best Denki Stadium. Avispa Fukuoka are 10th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Shimizu S-pulse sit 7th on 24 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Avispa Fukuoka's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to V-varen Nagasaki 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.3 for Shimizu S-pulse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Shimizu S-pulse to win at 2.62 – 44% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Avispa Fukuoka34%fair 2.94 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Shimizu S-pulse44%fair 2.28 · @2.62
2.49Expected goals
1.14Avispa Fukuoka xG
1.35Shimizu S-pulse xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Avispa Fukuoka 1.1 – 1.3 Shimizu S-pulse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shimizu S-pulse to win✗
44%
2.28
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shimizu S-pulse / FT Shimizu S-pulse✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.62
–
Form
Avispa Fukuoka – last 5
LLLLL
15 Mar
@ V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs Nagoya Grampus
1–5
L
27 Feb
@ Vissel Kobe
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Kyoto Sanga
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cerezo Osaka
0–2
L
0.4Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Shimizu S-pulse – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Vissel Kobe
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avispa Fukuoka and Shimizu S-pulse.
What is the prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
On our numbers Avispa Fukuoka have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Shimizu S-pulse 44%.
How many goals will there be in Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Our predicted score is Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Best Denki Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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