Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima preview and prediction
The match
Nagoya Grampus host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League on Wednesday 18 March, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Nagoya Grampus are 3rd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th on 30 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nagoya Grampus's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Vissel Kobe 0–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Gamba Osaka 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.2 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.6 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nagoya Grampus 32%, draw 21%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nagoya Grampus32%fair 3.13 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Sanfrecce Hiroshima47%fair 2.12 · @2.20
2.78Expected goals
1.22Nagoya Grampus xG
1.56Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Nagoya Grampus 1.2 – 1.6 Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win✗
47%
2.12
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sanfrecce Hiroshima / FT Sanfrecce Hiroshima✗
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.87
–
Form
Nagoya Grampus – last 3
LWL
14 Mar
vs Vissel Kobe
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Avispa Fukuoka
5–1
W
21 Feb
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima – last 6
WWLLWD
14 Mar
vs Gamba Osaka
2–0
W
11 Mar
vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
1–0
W
4 Mar
@ Johor Darul Takzim FC
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Cerezo Osaka
2–1
W
17 Feb
@ FC Seoul
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nagoya Grampus and Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
On our numbers Nagoya Grampus have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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