Value bet: Vocem to win @ 2.55 – our chance 46% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultVocem to win46% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score62% · fair 1.61
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals68% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.78
Vocem vs Nacional SP preview and prediction
The match
Nacional SP travel to face Vocem in the Paulista A4 on Saturday 14 February (21:00 WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Vocem and 0.8 for Nacional SP. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vocem 46%, draw 23%, Nacional SP 32%.
Value angle: Vocem to win at 2.55 – 46% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vocem 1–0 Nacional SP. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vocem46%fair 2.19 · @2.55
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Nacional SP32%fair 3.15 · @2.60
1.76Expected goals
1.01Vocem xG
0.75Nacional SP xG
38%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–017%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Vocem 1.0 – 0.8 Nacional SP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vocem to win
46%
2.19
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.78
–
Form
Vocem
No recent results on record.
Nacional SP
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vocem and Nacional SP.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Vocem vs Nacional SP?
On our numbers Vocem have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nacional SP 32%.
How many goals will there be in Vocem vs Nacional SP?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vocem vs Nacional SP?
Our predicted score is Vocem 1–0 Nacional SP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Vocem vs Nacional SP?
Vocem vs Nacional SP (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
Colorado Caieiras
Jabaquara
Joseense
São Caetano
Taquaritinga
AEA
Barretos
Tanabi
Grêmio Sãocarlense
Comercial
EC Lemense
Inter de Bebedouro
Penapolense2
ECUS1