Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Grêmio Sãocarlense to win @ 2.45 – our chance 49% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultGrêmio Sãocarlense to win49% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.54
Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial preview and prediction
The match
The Paulista A4 sees Grêmio Sãocarlense take on Comercial on Saturday 14 February, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Grêmio Sãocarlense and 1.0 for Comercial. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Grêmio Sãocarlense to win at 2.45 – 49% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Grêmio Sãocarlense 1–0 Comercial. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grêmio Sãocarlense49%fair 2.04 · @2.45
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.00
Comercial28%fair 3.61 · @2.85
2.35Expected goals
1.40Grêmio Sãocarlense xG
0.96Comercial xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
2–09%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Grêmio Sãocarlense 1.4 – 1.0 Comercial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grêmio Sãocarlense to win
49%
2.04
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grêmio Sãocarlense / FT Grêmio Sãocarlense
28%
3.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.54
–
Form
Grêmio Sãocarlense
No recent results on record.
Comercial
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grêmio Sãocarlense and Comercial.
What is the prediction for Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
On our numbers Grêmio Sãocarlense have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Comercial 28%.
How many goals will there be in Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
Our predicted score is Grêmio Sãocarlense 1–0 Comercial, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
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