Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✓72% · @1.27
Double chanceSantos or draw ✓91% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.76
Santos vs Velo Clube preview and prediction
The match
Velo Clube travel to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in the Paulista A1 on Monday 16 February (00:30 WAT) to face Santos.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.7 for Santos and 0.4 for Velo Clube. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 72%, draw 19%, Velo Clube 9%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Santos 1–0 Velo Clube. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos72%fair 1.39 · @1.27
Draw19%fair 5.13 · @5.00
Velo Clube9%fair 11.71 · @12.00
2.11Expected goals
1.73Santos xG
0.38Velo Clube xG
45%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–018%
0–012%
3–010%
1–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Santos 1.7 – 0.4 Velo Clube expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✓
72%
1.39
1.27
Double chance
Santos or draw✓
91%
1.09
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.33
Half-time result
Santos ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✓
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.76
–
Form
Santos
No recent results on record.
Velo Clube
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Velo Clube.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Santos vs Velo Clube?
On our numbers Santos have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Velo Clube 9%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Velo Clube?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Velo Clube?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–0 Velo Clube, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Velo Clube?
Santos vs Velo Clube (Paulista A1) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A1 · Brazil · Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Botafogo SP0
Capivariano1
RB Bragantino3
Novorizontino0
Mirassol1
Portuguesa2
Palmeiras1
Guarani Campinas1
Ponte Preta1
Sao Paulo2
Primavera SP3
Noroeste3
São Bernardo0
Corinthians1