Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 11 Apr 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultDeportivo Merlo to win62% · @1.80

Double chanceDeportivo Merlo or draw87% · @1.13

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · @1.50

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · fair 1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.18

Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó preview and prediction

The match

Deportivo Merlo host Ituzaingó in the Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday 11 April, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium. Deportivo Merlo are 15th with 49 points from 42 games (in the bottom half), while Ituzaingó sit 22nd on 17 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 32 points shows the difference in quality this season.

Form guide

Deportivo Merlo's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Sportivo Italiano 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Ituzaingó's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Argentino de Merlo 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.

Deportivo Merlo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.5.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Deportivo Merlo and 0.5 for Ituzaingó. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.

Betting angles

Win chances: Deportivo Merlo 62%, draw 25%, Ituzaingó 13%.
Safer route: Deportivo Merlo or draw (87%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.50.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Deportivo Merlo to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Ituzaingó. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Deportivo Merlo62%fair 1.61 · @1.80

Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10

Ituzaingó13%fair 7.54 · @4.50

2.07Expected goals

1.53Deportivo Merlo xG

0.54Ituzaingó xG

45%Both score

34%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–019%

2–015%

0–013%

1–110%

2–18%

3–08%

From our goals model: Deportivo Merlo 1.5 – 0.5 Ituzaingó expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Deportivo Merlo to win	62%	1.61	1.80 ▲
Double chance	Deportivo Merlo or draw	87%	1.15	1.13
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score	55%	1.81	1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	61%	1.65	1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	66%	1.52	1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	84%	1.18	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	47%	2.13	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Deportivo Merlo / FT Deportivo Merlo	38%	2.66	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	19%	5.18	–

Form

Deportivo Merlo – last 5

LWDWL

29 Mar	@ Sportivo Italiano	1–2	L
5 Mar	@ Real Pilar	3–1	W
28 Feb	vs UAI Urquiza	0–0	D
22 Feb	@ Villa Dalmine	1–0	W
16 Feb	vs Excursionistas	1–2	L

1.2Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

60%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

Ituzaingó – last 6

LDDLDL

3 Apr	vs Argentino de Merlo	0–1	L
21 Mar	vs Talleres Remedios	0–0	D
15 Mar	@ Sportivo Italiano	0–0	D
4 Mar	@ San Martín Burzaco	0–3	L
28 Feb	vs Brown DE Adrogue	1–1	D
22 Feb	@ Villa San Carlos	1–3	L

0.3Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?

Our pick is Deportivo Merlo to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?

On our numbers Deportivo Merlo have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ituzaingó 13%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?

Our predicted score is Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Ituzaingó, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?

Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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