Value bet: Deportivo Moron to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlmirante Brown to win ✓37% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.29
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Almirante Brown take on Deportivo Moron on Sunday 25 October, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento. Almirante Brown are 6th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Moron sit 3rd on 61 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Almirante Brown's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Colon Santa Fe 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Deportivo Moron's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Atletico Mitre 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Deportivo Moron arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 June 2026, finished Deportivo Moron 1–0 Almirante Brown.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Almirante Brown and 1.0 for Deportivo Moron. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almirante Brown 37%, draw 29%, Deportivo Moron 34%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Deportivo Moron to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Almirante Brown 1–0 Deportivo Moron. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almirante Brown37%fair 2.67 · @2.50
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @2.50
Deportivo Moron34%fair 2.95 · @3.20
2.04Expected goals
1.05Almirante Brown xG
0.99Deportivo Moron xG
47%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Almirante Brown 1.1 – 1.0 Deportivo Moron expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
On our numbers Almirante Brown have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Deportivo Moron 34%.
How many goals will there be in Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
Our predicted score is Almirante Brown 1–0 Deportivo Moron, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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