San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
San Martin Tucuman to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin Tucuman to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceSan Martin Tucuman or draw ✓89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗25% · fair 4.00
San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela preview and prediction
The match
San Martin Tucuman host Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio La Ciudadela. San Martin Tucuman are 10th with 47 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico DE Rafaela sit 11th on 47 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
San Martin Tucuman's last 4: DDDD Most recently they drew with Tristan Suarez 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Agropecuario 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.3 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.3 for Atletico DE Rafaela. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Martin Tucuman 62%, draw 27%, Atletico DE Rafaela 11%.
Safer route: San Martin Tucuman or draw (89%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was San Martin Tucuman to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Martin Tucuman62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.90
Atletico DE Rafaela11%fair 9.13 · @4.80
1.65Expected goals
1.30San Martin Tucuman xG
0.35Atletico DE Rafaela xG
42%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–025%
0–019%
2–016%
1–19%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: San Martin Tucuman 1.3 – 0.3 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin Tucuman to win✓
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
San Martin Tucuman or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Martin Tucuman / FT San Martin Tucuman✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
25%
4.00
–
Form
San Martin Tucuman – last 4
DDDD
19 Apr
vs Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Madryn
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Patronato
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
WDLDLW
21 Apr
vs Agropecuario
4–1
W
14 Apr
@ Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Martin Tucuman and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is San Martin Tucuman to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers San Martin Tucuman have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atletico DE Rafaela 11%.
How many goals will there be in San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Ciudadela.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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