Value bet: Nueva Chicago to win @ 4.00 – our chance 37% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +47%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNueva Chicago to win37% · @4.00
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–116% · fair 6.36
Patronato vs Nueva Chicago preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Patronato take on Nueva Chicago on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). Patronato are 16th with 38 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Nueva Chicago sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Patronato's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Maipu 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nueva Chicago's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Midland 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nueva Chicago arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Patronato and 0.8 for Nueva Chicago. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Patronato 36%, draw 27%, Nueva Chicago 37%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.45.
Value angle: Nueva Chicago to win at 4.00 – 37% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Patronato 0–0 Nueva Chicago. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Patronato36%fair 2.76 · @2.05
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @2.75
Nueva Chicago37%fair 2.72 · @4.00
1.68Expected goals
0.84Patronato xG
0.85Nueva Chicago xG
47%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
0–116%
1–016%
1–113%
0–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Patronato 0.8 – 0.8 Nueva Chicago expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nueva Chicago to win
37%
2.72
4.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.37
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.89
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
53%
1.89
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
16%
6.36
–
Form
Patronato – last 6
DLLDLD
19 Apr
vs Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Colon Santa Fe
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Quilmes
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Atlanta
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nueva Chicago – last 6
DWDWWW
13 Apr
vs Midland
2–2
D
8 Apr
@ Atlanta
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs All Boys
0–0
D
23 Mar
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Agropecuario
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Atlético Güemes
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and Nueva Chicago.
What is the prediction for Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
On our numbers Patronato have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Nueva Chicago 37%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Our predicted score is Patronato 0–0 Nueva Chicago, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Patronato vs Nueva Chicago (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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