Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Louisville City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Louisville City to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLouisville City to win ✗58% · @1.85
Double chanceLouisville City or draw ✗80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.21
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies preview and prediction
The match
Tampa Bay Rowdies travel to Lynn Family Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 31 May (00:00 WAT) to face Louisville City. Louisville City are 4th with 47 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Louisville City's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Miami FC 3–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Phoenix Rising 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tampa Bay Rowdies arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Louisville City and 1.0 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Louisville City 58%, draw 22%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 20%.
Safer route: Louisville City or draw (80%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Louisville City to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Louisville City or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Louisville City 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Louisville City58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.50
Tampa Bay Rowdies20%fair 4.95 · @3.55
2.84Expected goals
1.85Louisville City xG
0.98Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Louisville City 1.9 – 1.0 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✗
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Louisville City or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Half-time result
Louisville City ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.21
–
Form
Louisville City – last 6
LWLLDW
24 May
@ Miami FC
3–4
L
17 May
@ Union Omaha
5–1
W
10 May
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0–2
L
2 May
@ Detroit City
1–2
L
30 Apr
@ Houston Dynamo
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Fort Wayne
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WWWDWW
24 May
vs Phoenix Rising
3–0
W
21 May
@ New Mexico United
1–0
W
17 May
@ Miami FC
4–1
W
10 May
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
3 May
vs Indy Eleven
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Louisville City and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What is the prediction for Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Louisville City or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers Louisville City have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 20%.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is Louisville City 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Lynn Family Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
New Mexico United0
Oakland Roots0
Colorado Springs1
El Paso Locomotive1
Lexington4
Monterey Bay4
Las Vegas Lights0
FC Tulsa0
Phoenix Rising2
Sacramento Republic0