Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
Phoenix Rising host New Mexico United in the USL Championship on Sunday 12 April, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium. Phoenix Rising are 8th with 40 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Phoenix Rising's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Sacramento Republic 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
New Mexico United's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Orange County SC 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Phoenix Rising and 1.3 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Phoenix Rising 40%, draw 23%, New Mexico United 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Phoenix Rising 1–1 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Phoenix Rising40%fair 2.51 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.40
New Mexico United37%fair 2.67 · @2.80
2.67Expected goals
1.36Phoenix Rising xG
1.31New Mexico United xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.4 – 1.3 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Phoenix Rising to win✓
40%
2.51
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Phoenix Rising / FT Phoenix Rising✓
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.59
–
Form
Phoenix Rising – last 6
LDDDWD
5 Apr
@ Sacramento Republic
0–2
L
2 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
18 Mar
vs San Ramon
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 5
WLLWL
5 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Cruizers
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Phoenix Rising and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and New Mexico United 37%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Phoenix Rising 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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