Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Indy Eleven to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndy Eleven to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceIndy Eleven or draw ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52
Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay preview and prediction
The match
Indy Eleven host Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on Sunday 12 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium. Indy Eleven are 9th with 34 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Indy Eleven's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Monterey Bay's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with San Antonio 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Indy Eleven arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Indy Eleven and 0.8 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Indy Eleven 57%, draw 22%, Monterey Bay 22%.
Safer route: Indy Eleven or draw (78%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Indy Eleven to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Indy Eleven or draw – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Indy Eleven 1–0 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Indy Eleven57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.25
Monterey Bay22%fair 4.63 · @3.50
2.28Expected goals
1.50Indy Eleven xG
0.78Monterey Bay xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 1.5 – 0.8 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Indy Eleven to win✓
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Indy Eleven or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Indy Eleven / FT Indy Eleven✓
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.52
–
Form
Indy Eleven – last 4
DLWW
5 Apr
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Detroit City
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Des Moines Menace
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 5
DLDLL
5 Apr
vs San Antonio
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Las Vegas Lights
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indy Eleven and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Indy Eleven or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 22%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 1–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
El Paso Locomotive4
Lexington1
Oakland Roots2
FC Tulsa0
Orange County SC1
San Antonio0
Phoenix Rising3
New Mexico United0
Las Vegas Lights1
Sacramento Republic1