Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.62
Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Las Vegas Lights take on Sacramento Republic on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 03:30 (WAT) at Cashman Field. Las Vegas Lights are 11th with 36 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Sacramento Republic sit 2nd on 51 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Las Vegas Lights's last 4: LWLD Most recently they lost to El Paso Locomotive 2–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Sacramento Republic's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Phoenix Rising 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sacramento Republic arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.5 for Sacramento Republic. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Sacramento Republic to win at 2.25 – 48% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Sacramento Republic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Vegas Lights29%fair 3.39 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Sacramento Republic48%fair 2.07 · @2.25
2.54Expected goals
1.07Las Vegas Lights xG
1.47Sacramento Republic xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Las Vegas Lights 1.1 – 1.5 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✗
48%
2.07
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.62
–
Form
Las Vegas Lights – last 4
LWLD
5 Apr
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–3
L
29 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sacramento Republic – last 6
WWLDDD
5 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
2–0
W
1 Apr
@ Valley 559 FC
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs El Farolito
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Lexington
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Vegas Lights and Sacramento Republic.
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers Las Vegas Lights have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sacramento Republic 48%.
How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?
Our predicted score is Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic?
Las Vegas Lights vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Cashman Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Brooklyn3
Charleston Battery0
Hartford Athletic0
Indy Eleven3
Rhode Island3
Tampa Bay Rowdies2
Miami FC0