Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓66% · @1.70
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓85% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.36
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising preview and prediction
The match
Sacramento Republic host Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Heart Health Park. Sacramento Republic are 2nd with 51 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Phoenix Rising sit 8th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sacramento Republic's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Valley 559 FC 4–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Phoenix Rising's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Orange County SC 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Sacramento Republic and 0.7 for Phoenix Rising. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%.
Safer route: Sacramento Republic or draw (85%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Sacramento Republic to win at 1.70 – 66% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Phoenix Rising. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sacramento Republic66%fair 1.52 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.45
Phoenix Rising15%fair 6.62 · @4.50
2.41Expected goals
1.76Sacramento Republic xG
0.66Phoenix Rising xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.8 – 0.7 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✓
66%
1.52
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Sacramento Republic or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Sacramento Republic ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.36
–
Form
Sacramento Republic – last 6
WLDDDW
1 Apr
@ Valley 559 FC
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs El Farolito
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Lexington
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs FC Tulsa
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Phoenix Rising – last 6
DDDWDL
2 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
18 Mar
vs San Ramon
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ San Antonio
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Phoenix Rising 15%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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