Double chanceEl Paso Locomotive or draw ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights preview and prediction
The match
Las Vegas Lights travel to Southwest University Park in the USL Championship on Sunday 5 April (02:00 WAT) to face El Paso Locomotive. El Paso Locomotive are 3rd with 50 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Las Vegas Lights sit 11th on 36 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
El Paso Locomotive's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat New Mexico United 4–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.6 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Las Vegas Lights's last 3: WLD Most recently they beat Monterey Bay 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
El Paso Locomotive arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.6 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for El Paso Locomotive and 1.0 for Las Vegas Lights. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: El Paso Locomotive 58%, draw 22%, Las Vegas Lights 19%.
Safer route: El Paso Locomotive or draw (81%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: El Paso Locomotive 1–1 Las Vegas Lights. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
El Paso Locomotive58%fair 1.71 · @1.77
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.45
Las Vegas Lights19%fair 5.23 · @4.00
3.02Expected goals
1.97El Paso Locomotive xG
1.05Las Vegas Lights xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: El Paso Locomotive 2.0 – 1.0 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
El Paso Locomotive to win✓
58%
1.71
1.77
Double chance
El Paso Locomotive or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.35
Half-time result
El Paso Locomotive ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT El Paso Locomotive / FT El Paso Locomotive✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Form
El Paso Locomotive – last 5
WWWWD
2 Apr
@ New Mexico United
4–0
W
29 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
2–1
W
20 Mar
@ Laredo Heat
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Monterey Bay
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Colorado Springs
2–2
D
2.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Las Vegas Lights – last 3
WLD
29 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Paso Locomotive and Las Vegas Lights.
What is the prediction for El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?
On our numbers El Paso Locomotive have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Las Vegas Lights 19%.
How many goals will there be in El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our predicted score is El Paso Locomotive 1–1 Las Vegas Lights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?
El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Southwest University Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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