Orange County SC vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
New Mexico United travel to Championship Soccer Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 5 April (03:00 WAT) to face Orange County SC. Orange County SC are 9th with 39 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Orange County SC's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Phoenix Rising 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United's last 4: LLWL Most recently they lost to El Paso Locomotive 0–4 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Orange County SC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Orange County SC and 1.1 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Orange County SC 44%, draw 21%, New Mexico United 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Orange County SC 1–1 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orange County SC44%fair 2.29 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.35
New Mexico United36%fair 2.81 · @2.88
2.44Expected goals
1.31Orange County SC xG
1.14New Mexico United xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 1.3 – 1.1 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orange County SC to win✗
44%
2.29
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Orange County SC / FT Orange County SC✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.82
–
Form
Orange County SC – last 6
DWWWDD
2 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
19 Mar
vs Laguna United
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Las Vegas Lights
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 4
LLWL
2 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Cruizers
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and New Mexico United 36%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
Orange County SC vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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