Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✗65% · @1.45
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.03
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay preview and prediction
The match
Sacramento Republic host Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Heart Health Park. Sacramento Republic are 2nd with 51 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sacramento Republic's last 3: DDW Most recently they drew with El Farolito 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Sacramento Republic and 0.5 for Monterey Bay. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sacramento Republic 65%, draw 21%, Monterey Bay 14%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sacramento Republic65%fair 1.55 · @1.45
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.75
Monterey Bay14%fair 6.95 · @6.75
2.04Expected goals
1.53Sacramento Republic xG
0.51Monterey Bay xG
46%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.5 – 0.5 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✗
65%
1.55
1.45
Double chance
Sacramento Republic or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.77 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.03
–
Form
Sacramento Republic – last 3
DDW
19 Mar
vs El Farolito
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Lexington
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs FC Tulsa
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 2
LL
15 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sacramento Republic and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monterey Bay 14%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?
Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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