Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓65% · @1.73
Double chanceSao Paulo or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.45
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Sao Paulo take on Vitoria on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Morumbi. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vitoria sit 15th on 38 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Vitoria's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 4–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Vitoria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Sao Paulo and 0.7 for Vitoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 65%, draw 20%, Vitoria 15%.
Safer route: Sao Paulo or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sao Paulo to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.30
Vitoria15%fair 6.80 · @4.80
2.43Expected goals
1.76Sao Paulo xG
0.67Vitoria xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.8 – 0.7 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
65%
1.54
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Sao Paulo or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Sao Paulo ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.45
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
LLWDLL
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
9 Sep
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
WLDWLL
8 Oct
vs Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
20 Sep
vs Cruzeiro
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
8 Sep
vs Gremio
1–0
W
3 Sep
vs Vasco DA Gama
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Atletico-MG
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Vitoria.
Our pick is Sao Paulo to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vitoria 15%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
