Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.93
Bahia vs Mirassol preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Bahia take on Mirassol on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Mirassol sit 14th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 0–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Mirassol's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with RB Bragantino 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Bahia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Bahia and 0.8 for Mirassol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 62%, draw 21%, Mirassol 17%.
Safer route: Bahia or draw (83%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bahia to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bahia 1–0 Mirassol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia62%fair 1.61 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.70
Mirassol17%fair 5.98 · @4.33
2.69Expected goals
1.86Bahia xG
0.83Mirassol xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.9 – 0.8 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
62%
1.61
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.93
–
Form
Bahia – last 6
LLWWWW
9 Oct
@ Palmeiras
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
15 Sep
vs Remo
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ RB Bragantino
3–2
W
30 Aug
vs Internacional
3–2
W
23 Aug
@ Vitoria
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mirassol – last 6
DWDWLD
7 Oct
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Botafogo
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Vitoria
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Coritiba
2–1
W
2 Sep
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Palmeiras
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Mirassol.
Our pick is Bahia to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Bahia vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Bahia have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mirassol 17%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Mirassol?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Mirassol?
Bahia vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
