Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.90
Palmeiras vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Palmeiras take on Corinthians on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 21:30 (WAT) at Nubank Parque. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Corinthians sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 36 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Bahia 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Corinthians's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Internacional 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Palmeiras and 0.6 for Corinthians. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%.
Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palmeiras 1–0 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras65%fair 1.55 · @1.62
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.50
Corinthians15%fair 6.69 · @5.00
2.29Expected goals
1.67Palmeiras xG
0.62Corinthians xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.7 – 0.6 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
65%
1.55
1.62
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.90
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
WDLWWD
9 Oct
vs Bahia
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Gremio
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ LDU de Quito
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Sao Paulo
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Botafogo
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
LLLLDL
7 Oct
@ Internacional
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Fluminense
1–3
L
17 Sep
vs Estudiantes L.P.
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Flamengo
1–2
L
10 Sep
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Corinthians 15%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Nubank Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
