Serie A · Brazil · MRV ArenaAtletico-MG vs Santos prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.75 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.5 – 1.3 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Atletico-MG and Santos on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Atletico-MG have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Santos have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.5 for Atletico-MG, 1.3 for Santos). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 3 meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1, Santos have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 57% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is close to our fair price of 1.75. For a bigger price, Santos to win at 3.40 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico-MG to win ✓ | 41% | 2.41 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.41 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG ✗ | 24% | 4.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 9% | 11.01 | – |
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ Atletico Paranaense | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs RB Bragantino | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Chapecoense-sc | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Fluminense | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | @ Santos | 0–2 | L |
Santos – last 6
| 8 Oct | vs Flamengo | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Atletico-MG | 2–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 16 Sep 2026 | Atletico-MG v Santos | 4–2 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Santos v Atletico-MG | 2–0 |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Santos v Atletico-MG | 1–0 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Santos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Santos?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santos 35%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Santos?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico-MG vs Santos?
Atletico-MG vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.