Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.29
Gremio vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
Palmeiras travel to Arena do Grêmio in the Serie A on Sunday 20 September (15:00 WAT) to face Gremio. Gremio are 18th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). A gap of 36 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gremio's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Botafogo 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Palmeiras's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to LDU de Quito 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Palmeiras 2–1 Gremio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Gremio and 1.7 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gremio 19%, draw 21%, Palmeiras 60%.
Safer route: Palmeiras or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Gremio 0–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio19%fair 5.30 · @3.90
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.40
Palmeiras60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
2.52Expected goals
0.81Gremio xG
1.71Palmeiras xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Gremio 0.8 – 1.7 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Palmeiras or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Gremio have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Palmeiras 60%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Gremio 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
