Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✓40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia preview and prediction
The match
Bahia travel to Arena da Baixada in the Serie A on Sunday 20 September (23:30 WAT) to face Atletico Paranaense. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with Coritiba 3–3 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Bahia's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Remo 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Bahia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 April 2026, finished Bahia 3–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.3 for Bahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Bahia to win at 3.30 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense40%fair 2.47 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.25
Bahia36%fair 2.81 · @3.30
2.72Expected goals
1.41Atletico Paranaense xG
1.31Bahia xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.4 – 1.3 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bahia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
