Serie A · Brazil · São JanuárioVasco DA Gama vs Coritiba prediction & analysis
Vasco DA Gama to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.9 – 0.8 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vasco DA Gama are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 14% for Coritiba.
Vasco DA Gama have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. Coritiba have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Vasco DA Gama, 0.8 for Coritiba). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Coritiba have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is close to our fair price of 1.64.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vasco DA Gama to win ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.55 |
| Double chance | Vasco DA Gama or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.42 | – |
| Half-time result | Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama ✓ | 40% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.14 | – |
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
| 15 Sep | vs Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Santa Fe | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Sep | @ Vitoria | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Cruzeiro | 3–1 | W |
Coritiba – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Sep | @ Remo | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Chapecoense-sc | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Apr 2026 | Coritiba v Vasco DA Gama | 1–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Coritiba 14%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.