Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✗42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.88
Corinthians vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
Fluminense travel to Neo Quimica Arena in the Serie A on Sunday 20 September (20:00 WAT) to face Corinthians. Corinthians are 17th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Fluminense sit 4th on 57 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Corinthians's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Estudiantes L.P. 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Fluminense's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Platense 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Fluminense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 April 2026, finished Fluminense 3–1 Corinthians.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Corinthians and 1.1 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 3.50 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.77, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Corinthians 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Corinthians42%fair 2.36 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @2.90
Fluminense34%fair 2.94 · @3.50
2.46Expected goals
1.32Corinthians xG
1.14Fluminense xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.3 – 1.1 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Corinthians vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fluminense 34%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Corinthians vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
