Serie A · Brazil · MorumbiSao Paulo vs Internacional prediction & analysis
Sao Paulo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Sao Paulo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.7 – 0.7 Internacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sao Paulo are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 17% for Internacional.
Sao Paulo have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Internacional have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.7 for Sao Paulo, 0.7 for Internacional). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Sao Paulo have won 0, Internacional have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Sao Paulo or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.20. For a bigger price, Sao Paulo to win at 1.95 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sao Paulo to win ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Sao Paulo or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo ✓ | 37% | 2.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 15% | 6.48 | – |
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
| 16 Sep | vs Boca Juniors | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Palmeiras | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | @ Boca Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs RB Bragantino | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Chapecoense-sc | 0–1 | L |
Internacional – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Chapecoense-sc | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Santos | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Gremio | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Bahia | 2–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Gremio | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Atletico-MG | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 1 Apr 2026 | Internacional v Sao Paulo | 1–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
Our pick is Sao Paulo or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Internacional 17%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
Sao Paulo vs Internacional (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.