Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 3.70 – our chance 35% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✗41% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.85
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense travel to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in the Serie A on Sunday 9 August (22:30 WAT) to face Santos. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Santos's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Remo 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Vitoria 0–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Santos and 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 3.70 – 35% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos41%fair 2.47 · @2.04
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Atletico Paranaense35%fair 2.84 · @3.70
2.59Expected goals
1.35Santos xG
1.24Atletico Paranaense xG
60%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 1.2 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✗
41%
2.47
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.85
–
Form
Santos – last 6
WDWDWL
5 Aug
@ Remo
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Remo
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs UCV
4–2
W
25 Jul
vs Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
22 Jul
@ UCV
4–1
W
16 Jul
@ Botafogo
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWDWWL
7 Aug
@ Vitoria
0–4
L
4 Aug
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
30 Jul
@ Corinthians
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Internacional
2–0
W
23 Jul
@ Sao Paulo
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ RB Bragantino
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Santos have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
