Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotafogo to win ✗44% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.57
Botafogo vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
Botafogo host Fluminense in the Serie A on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos. Botafogo are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Fluminense sit 4th on 57 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Botafogo's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Cruzeiro 1–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fluminense's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Botafogo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Botafogo and 1.3 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Botafogo 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botafogo44%fair 2.27 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.25
Fluminense34%fair 2.96 · @3.30
2.76Expected goals
1.49Botafogo xG
1.27Fluminense xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.5 – 1.3 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botafogo to win✗
44%
2.27
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.57
–
Form
Botafogo – last 6
WDWLWW
26 Jul
@ Cruzeiro
1–0
W
23 Jul
vs Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Jul
vs Santos
2–1
W
30 May
@ Bahia
1–2
L
27 May
@ Caracas FC
3–1
W
21 May
@ Independiente Petrolero
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
LDDDDW
6 Aug
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–0
D
30 Jul
vs Bahia
0–0
D
26 Jul
@ Gremio
1–1
D
18 Jul
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Bahia
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Botafogo vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fluminense 34%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Fluminense?
Botafogo vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
