Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✗59% · @1.90
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.20
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Bahia host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Fluminense 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Fluminense 3–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Bahia and 0.9 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 59%, draw 22%, Vasco DA Gama 19%.
Safer route: Bahia or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Bahia to win at 1.90 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bahia or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bahia 1–0 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia59%fair 1.70 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.55
Vasco DA Gama19%fair 5.19 · @3.80
2.68Expected goals
1.79Bahia xG
0.90Vasco DA Gama xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.8 – 0.9 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
59%
1.70
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.36
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.20
–
Form
Bahia – last 6
DDDWLW
30 Jul
@ Fluminense
0–0
D
26 Jul
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
21 Jul
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
17 Jul
vs Chapecoense-sc
2–0
W
12 Jul
@ Fluminense
0–2
L
30 May
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WDWDDL
6 Aug
@ Fluminense
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Fluminense
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Independiente Medellin
1–0
W
26 Jul
vs Mirassol
1–1
D
22 Jul
@ Independiente Medellin
2–2
D
16 Jul
@ Vitoria
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Bahia have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vasco DA Gama 19%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
