Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.94 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓63% · @1.94
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓88% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 6.99
Gremio vs Flamengo preview and prediction
The match
Gremio host Flamengo in the Serie A on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena do Grêmio. Gremio are 18th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Flamengo sit 1st on 76 points (top of the table). A gap of 39 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gremio's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Deportivo Riestra 3–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Flamengo's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Gremio and 1.8 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gremio 12%, draw 25%, Flamengo 63%.
Safer route: Flamengo or draw (88%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Flamengo to win at 1.94 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Flamengo or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gremio 0–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio12%fair 8.03 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.45
Flamengo63%fair 1.59 · @1.94
2.56Expected goals
0.71Gremio xG
1.84Flamengo xG
48%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Gremio 0.7 – 1.8 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
63%
1.59
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
6.99
–
Form
Gremio – last 6
WDDWLW
5 May
@ Deportivo Riestra
3–0
W
3 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–0
D
30 Apr
@ Palestino
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
DWWWWL
30 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Bahia
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Flamengo.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Gremio vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Gremio have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Flamengo 63%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Gremio 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
